HVAC Lead Flip: $1.2M to $3.6M in 12 Months

Why This Matters

Most HVAC shops survive on seasonality and luck. This team in Tyler, Texas moved from a run-and-gun $1.2M operation to a disciplined $3.6M business in 12 months by turning every maintenance and repair touchpoint into a predictable, trusted sales path.

The Starting Point

  • Owner-operator, light processes, “sell when you can” mindset.
  • No defined repair-vs-replace rules; decisions varied by tech and mood.
  • Maintenance was sporadic, records were thin, and lead handoffs were ad hoc.
  • Comfort advisors were reactive; service techs carried the sales burden.

The Objective

Build a repeatable lead-flip model that:

  • Uses maintenance to surface real replacement opportunities.
  • Keeps trust high with clear repair-vs-replace criteria.
  • Routes sales to trained comfort advisors, not overburdened service techs.
  • Anchors loyalty with a simple friends-and-family plan.

The Model at a Glance

  1. Maintenance techs document system health on every visit and flag replacement triggers. They do not sell.
  2. Service techs handle necessary repairs; if major work is needed, they stabilize and flip to sales.
  3. Comfort advisors run the standardized sales process, price, and close replacements.
  4. Warranty techs ensure installs stay tight, feeding quality data back into maintenance records.
  5. Office dispatch orchestrates immediate handoffs when a lead flip is triggered.

Repair vs Replace Matrix

Principle: “A repair that’s a band-aid on a bullet wound costs more now and later.” The only exceptions: small, low-cost fixes (e.g., a capacitor) that restore full function without masking systemic risk.

Replace triggers (any one):

  • System age and efficiency: 12+ years and SEER below market norm.
  • Repeated failures: 2+ major component failures in 18 months.
  • Safety/critical risks: cracked heat exchanger, unsafe wiring, refrigerant leaks.
  • Cost-to-repair vs replace: if repair exceeds 25–30% of replacement and doesn’t materially extend life.
  • Comfort gap: persistent airflow or delta-T misses after basic remediation.

Repair and retain (rare cases):

  • Minor, isolated component (e.g., capacitor) with no systemic symptoms.
  • Customer constrained; document the choice and schedule follow-up validation.

Friends-and-Family Plan

  • $19.99/month membership.
  • 20% off all future repairs and accessories.
  • Two visits per year: 1 heat check, 1 cool check.
  • Cool check: amps, delta T, airflow, coil condition, drains, filter path.
  • Heat check: furnace integrity, combustion, safeties, venting.
  • Benefits: priority scheduling, waived trip/priority fees, documented system health history.
  • Goal: predictable visits → clean data → credible lead flips when replacement is the right call.

Lead Flip Path

New system issues:

  • Maintenance tech visits, logs findings. If replacement warranted, they do not pitch.
  • Tech notifies office in real time; office immediately dispatches a comfort advisor.
  • Comfort advisor arrives same/next available window to run the sales process.

Major repair scenarios:

  • Service tech stabilizes, repairs as needed to keep the customer safe and running.
  • If repair hits replace triggers, service tech flips to office; comfort advisor presents options.

Standardized sales process (comfort advisor):

  • Validate pain: comfort, reliability, safety, operating costs.
  • Show the matrix: why repair is a band-aid vs replace ROI.
  • Present 2–3 system options with financing; anchor on total cost of ownership.
  • Close next steps on-site (sign or schedule install).

Roles and Accountability

  • Maintenance techs: Inspection, data capture, no selling; trigger flips per matrix.
  • Service techs: Repair-first, safety-first; flip when matrix says replace.
  • Comfort advisors: Own the sale; measure, propose, finance, close.
  • Warranty techs: Protect install quality; reduce callbacks; feed QC data.
  • Office/dispatcher: Live routing; confirms advisor arrival; updates CRM/work orders.

Process and Tooling

  • Standard work orders with required fields (age, SEER, delta T, static, photos).
  • Real-time office Slack/phone trigger: “Flip – Advisor Needed” with address and summary.
  • CRM tags: maintenance → lead → proposal → sold → install → warranty.
  • Daily huddles: yesterday’s flips, today’s advisor schedule, blockers.

Results in 12 Months

  • Revenue: $1.2M → $3.6M.
  • Replacement close rate (advisor-led): 48% → 62%.
  • Maintenance membership penetration: <5% → 42% of active customers.
  • Average ticket on replacements: +18% (options + financing).
  • Callbacks on installs: -22% (warranty tech QA loop).

Implementation Steps You Can Reuse

  1. Publish a one-page repair-vs-replace matrix and train every tech.
  2. Separate duties: maintenance/service find; comfort advisors sell.
  3. Launch a simple membership (2 visits, priority, discounts); keep billing autopay.
  4. Script the flip: exact words, who calls the office, how fast the advisor arrives.
  5. Track every flip from trigger → advisor arrival → proposal → win/loss reason.
  6. Review weekly: flips missed, advisor response time, close rates, install QA.

Lessons Learned

  • Trust is the asset: techs who do not sell build the credibility advisors need to close.
  • Speed wins: same-day/next-day advisor arrival lifted close rate and customer confidence.
  • Simple beats clever: $19.99 membership with clear benefits converted better than tiered plans.
  • Data discipline mattered more than discounts: consistent records justified the flip.

What to Do Next

  • Start with the matrix: align your team on when to replace.
  • Launch the friends-and-family plan to secure recurring visits and data.
  • Give sales back to comfort advisors; unburden your service techs.
  • Measure flips, not just calls. The flips are where you scale.

If you want this system implemented in your shop, let’s talk.

Free Framework

The $10M Operations Readiness Assessment

Score your business across 5 operational pillars. The same diagnostic we use with consulting clients paying $5K+.

Get the Free Assessment →